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f 




CROPS AND MARKETS 




VOLUME 59 



TOBACCO (Page 223) 



NUMBER 10 



FOR RELEASE 
MONDAY 
SEPTEMBER 5, 1949 



' ; CONTENTS j : < 

Page 

CQTTON AND OTHER FIBER 

Cotton-Price Quotations on Foreign Markets..,., 235 

Chinese Cotton Consumption Declines in 1948'- "49". .".","."... 236 
Philippine Cotton Consumption Drops, , , 237 
Italian Silk Industry Progress Retarded.".'., ...... ,,..", 238 

FATS AND OILS 
Argentina Makes Significant Changes in Oilseed 

Policies 229 

Angola Expects Larger Oleagino us Output. . .. .. ..... . . . . 230 

Pakistan Harvests Smaller Flaxseed Crop..'..'.'....,..,., 231 

GRAINS, GRAIN PRODUCTS AND FEEDS 

Burma Plants Less Rice But Maintains 1949 Exports 226 

Italian Rice Crop Improves. , , , • 227 
Spain Plants Record Rice Acreage....,,..,....".".,',,.,',, 227 

LIVESTOCK AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS 

Hog Situation in Argentina Appears Brighter., ,, 232 

U.K. Livestock Numbers Continue Postwar Increase...... 232 

Argentine Cattle Prices Increase. 233 

New Zealand Butterfat Prices Up..,..,.,,.,.,......".... 234 

French Dairy Supplies Affected by Drought. .,.,."."...., . 234 

TOBACCO 

Forecast 6 Percent Drop in North Temperate Zone 
Tobacco Product ion n ................ o ................ . 223 

TROPICAL PRODUCTS 

Venezuela's Postwar Coffee Production Steady, ......... 228 

Angola's 1949 Coffee Crop Larger..... 228 

Cacao Production In New Hebrides Declining.,,,,",..,,., 229 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
OFFICE OF FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS 
WASHINGTON 25, D.C. 



222 



Foreign Crops and Mrrkets 



Vol. 59, Bo. 10 



LATE NEWS 



Philippine copra prices have moved rapidly upward. Luring June 
copra was quoted at SlUo.OO per short ton c.i.f. Pacific Coast and 
about $135*00 f .0,13, European shipments. By the end of August 
Philippine sellers were asking $127.50 to $190.00 c.i.f. Pacific Coast. 

Lard was derationed in Denmark on August U, 19^-9 according to the 
American Embassy, Copenhagen. The high price of Danish lard in world 
markets did not permit exports and the domestic sup-plies increased, 
obviating the need for rationing. 



P OPE IGF CROPS AFP MAPJC5T5 

Published weekly to inform producers processors, distributors and 
consumers of farm products of current developments abroad in the crop and 
livestock industries, foreign trends in prices and consumption of farm 
products, and world agricultural tra.de. Circulation of this periodical 
is free to those needing the information it contains in farming, business, 
and professional operations. Issued by the Office of Foreign Agricultural 
Relations of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington 25, D.C. 



September 5, 191*9 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



223 



.FORECAST 6 PERCENT DROP IN NORTH TEMPERATE ZONE TOBACCO PRODUCTION 

Based on preliminary estimates, the North Temperate zone's harvest 
of leaf tobacco during 19^9 is forecast at 5,lk0 million pounds, or about 
6 percent below the 19^8 production of about 5,^70 million pounds. 

The 19^9 crop forecast is about 3 percent below the 19^7 harvest 
but still 15 percent above the prewar, 1935-39, average. The decrease 
in production estimated for China more than accounts for the overall 
decline. The combined production for all countries, excluding China, 
would show a slight increase over 19^8. Since reliable estimates are 
still unavailable for China and several other important producing coun- 
tries the present forecast is subject to considerable change. 

As a result of increased production in the United States, the north 
temperate zone's 19*1-9 production of flue-cured tobacco, the principal 
type entering world trade, may be slightly above the I9U8 output. It 
is anticipated, however, that a large part of the increase in 19*1-9 produc- 
tion in the United States will be offset by a smaller crop in China. 
In the case of oriental or Turkish-type tobacco, another important type 
entering world trade, it is anticipated that the 19*+9 harvest will be 
somewhat above the 19*+8 output. 

The 19^9 production of light air -cured types, which are grown to 
some extent in most tobacco producing countries, is expected to be below 
the 19^8 output, as a result of the anticipated decline in China. The 
production of dark types, including cigar leaf, may about equal the 19*1-8 
outturn . 

North America . Canada's 19*+9 tobacco crop is estimated at 127 mil- 
lion pounds, or about the same as in 19*1-8. The area planted to tobacco 
was somewhat larger in 19*1-9, but a decline in the yield per acre is ex- 
pected as result of unfavorable weather during the growing season. The 
indicated 19^9 crop is 19 percent above the 19*1-7 harvest and 66 percent 
above the 1935-39 average of about 77 million pounds. 

The United States crop was forecast as of August 1 at 2,019 million 
pounds, as compared with the 19^8 harvest of 1,982 million pounds and the 
prewar, 1935.39, production of 1, 1^60 million pounds. The 19*+9 indicated 
production of flue -cured leaf of l,l6l million pounds is about 7 percent 
above the igkQ harvest of 1,090 million pounds. A decline of 11 percent 
is forecast for fire-cured leaf, 3 percent for Bur ley, 1 percent for 
dark air-cured and 5 percent for cigar. An increase of 7 percent is 
forecast for Maryland leaf. 

Europe. The I9J+9 production of tobacco in Europe, excluding the 
U.S.S.R., is estimated to about equal the large 19*1-8 crop. Increases 
over 19*1-8 are reported for France, Germany, Hungary and Switzerland. Lower 
production is reported for Czechoslovakia, Italy, Sweden and several other 
minor tobacco -producing countries. The total 19*1-8 production for Europe 
is estimated at 800 million pounds from 920,000 acres, as compared with 
a revised I9U8 production of 800 million pounds from 905,000 acres and 
the prewar, 1935-39, average of 675 million pounds from 680,000 acres. 



September 5, 19^9 Foreign Crops and Markets 



225 



U.S.S.R. Authentic information on tobacco production in 
the U.S.S.R. in recent years is not available, but unconfirmed 
reports indicate an output in I9I4-9 approximately 8 percent 
above 19^8 but about 20 percent below the prewar average pro- 
duction of around 525 million pounds . 

Asia . Reliable estimates of China* s 19^9 tobacco crop are 
unavailable, but fragmentary reports indicate a decline of approxi- 
mately 25 percent from the large I9U8 production of 1,593 million 
pounds. Japan's 19^9 crop is also expected to be below the 19^8 
harvest, but the indicated production for Korea is above 19^8. 
Turkey's I9J+9 crop is forecast at 198 million pounds, or 13 per- 
cent above the 19^8 harvest, but still 10 percent below the record 
19^7 outturn of 220 million pounds. For other Asia Minor countries 
including Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which produce tobacco 
somewhat comparable in type to Turkish leaf, I9I+9 harvests are 
generally expected to approximately equal I9U8 productions. For 
all the temperate zone of Asia, 19^9 harvests are estimated at 
1,730 million pounds from 1,800,000 acres. This compares with 
2,130 million pounds from 2,080,000 acres in 19^8 and the prewar, 
3-935-3-9, average of 1,700 million pounds from 1,675,000 acres. 

Africa. The 19^+9 production of tobacco in the North Temperate 
zone countries of Africa is estimated to be somewhat below the 19^8 
output, largely due to less favorable weather during the growing 
season. The combined production of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia 
is estimated at ^5 million pounds from about 59,000 acres, as 
compared with k-8 million pounds from 55^000 acres in 19^8 and a 



1935-39 average of about kl million pounds from 



,000 acres. 



This is one of a series of regularly scheduled reports on world 
agricultural production, approved by the- Off ice of Foreign Agri- 
cultural Relations Committee on Foreign Crop and Livestock Sta- 
tistics. For this report, the. Commit tee : was composed of Clarence 
M. Purves," Acting Chairman, Clarence E. Rike, Lois B. Bacon, 
Tilmer 0. Frige brets on, and Mary L. E. Jones. 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



Vol. 59, No. 10 



COMMODITY DEVELOPMENTS 



GRAINS , GRAIN PRODUCTS AND FEEDS 

BURMA PLANTS LESS RICE BUT 
MAINTAINS 19^9 EXPORTS 

Burma 'a rice acreage planted in I949-5O is reported at 20 percent less 
than in the year before and only 63 percent of the prewar average. The 
sown acreage is unofficially forecast at around 8,000,000 acres compared 
with 9,921,000 acres in 1948-49 and the average of 12,671,000 acres during 
the prewar (1935-36/39-40) period. 



BURMA: 



Rice (milled) exports by country of destination, January- 
June I949 with comparisons 



Country of 
destination 


: Average 


I 1946 


1947 


• 1948 1/ 


: January -June l/ 


: 1936- 
■ 1940 


! 1948 


i 1949 


ASIA 


: Million 
' pounds 


' Million 
pounds 


: Million 
pounds 


: Million 
: pounds 


5 Million 
5 pounds 


' Million 
' pounds 


: 3,532 
807 
508 

: 2/ i;6 

; if 

: 117 

: 4/ 233 


: 534 
: 97 
: 267 
: 2/ 32 
: 2 
: 28 

5 ■ 0 

0 

0 


! 767 

: 246 
1 298 
: 2/ 106 
: 10 
: 207 
: 126 
: 0 
.13 


: 1,110 
: 684 
: 443 
: 132 
: 23 
: 82 
v 136 
: 0 
9 


! 860 

: 401+ 
: 342 
: 114 
: 15 
: 67 
: 72 
: 0 
: 0 


: 672 
: 399 
: 259 
: 148 

: 3/ 
: " 28 

: 69 

= P 
: 5r 101 
















Other countries 


: 5,353 


960 


1,773 


: 2,619 


: 1,874 


■ 1,676 


EUROPE 

United Kingdom. 
Other Europe. . . 


128 
497 


0 
0 


6 
0 


76 
5 


; 3/ 
~ 4 


6 
7 


625 


0 


6 


81 


4 


13 




61 

465 ; 


0 : 
0 ; 


0 
0 


25 
0 


0 

58 ; 


0 
10 


Other countries 


6,504 


960 


1,779 


2,725 


1,936 


1,699 





l/ Preliminary. 2/ Netherlands Indies. 3/ Not separately reported, k/ To 
Japan, Korea and Taiwan. 5/ Includes 28 million pounds to Philippines, 33 
million to Japan and Ryukyus , and 39 million to Pakistan. 



Compiled from consular reports. 



September 5, 19*5-9 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



227 



Planting "began in May in Lower Burma and June and July in Upper Burma, 
and transplanting extended through August. The Government's administrative 
machinery to make agricultural loans to growers reportedly has "been dis- 
rupted except in the larger cities. Many villages have "been "burned in the 
Burmese-Karen warfare, and the growers have abandoned homes and fields for 
refuge elsewhere. 

Burma's exports, of the 19^8-^9 crop have "been maintained surprisingly 
well so far in 19^9, Exports of 22h million pounds of rice and k million 
pounds of rice bran in July brought total January- July exports to 1,927 
million pounds of rice and 56 million pounds of bran. While shipping has 
been arranged for deliveries of 170 and 160 million pounds of rice in 
August and September, respectively, exports during the last half of 19^9 
are not expected to average more than 150 million pounds a month. 

.ITALIAN. SICE 
•CEOP'ilMPSD^S " ■ • 

The .Italian rice crop will be larger than was expected early in the 
season, 'Occasional rains and warm weather in July improved yields, fol- 
lowing unfavorable climatic conditions in April and May.- Despite efforts 

. by growers to intensify transplantings, the 19^9 rice area is 9 percent 
less than in 19^8-. The acreage planted was estimated -by^July 31 at 319,000 

"acres compared with 352,000 acres in the preceding year"! 

The principal reason for the acreage decline" was the large stocks- 
he Id over at the beginning of the season. Producers during 19^8 were 
unable to market their export surplus at satisfactory prices. Storage 
.facilities were heavily taxed, and it apparently was believed a large 
crop this year would have resulted in dumping and lower prices. Rice 
exports from Italy during the first 5 months of 19^9 are reported at- 
33 million pounds in rough rice equivalent (probably about 25 million 
.; pounds of semi -milled) . . 

• SPAIN- PLANTS RECORD • ' 

' RICE ACREAGE 

Spain planted a record rice acreage in 19^9, approximately 11+2,000 
acres compared with 137,000 acres in the preceding year. Fields on the 
whole as of July 21 were in good condition, and a larger harvest was 
predicted than in the year before. 

Fertilizer supplies available- for rice were slightly larger this' 
year. Growers reportedly were allotted around 38O pounds per acre as 
compared with 350 pounds in 19^8." It is estimated that a minimum of 
about 1+80 pounds per acre must be available before Spain reaches its 
former production of rice per acre. Spain's prewar yields per acre, 
averaging around 12k bushels of rough rice, were the largest in the 
world. 



228 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



Vol. 59, No. 10 



TROPICAL PRODUCTS 

VMEZUELA'S POSTWAR COFFEE 
PRODUCTION STEADY . 

Venezuela's 19^9-50 coffee production is forecast at 750,000 to 800,000 
bags, according to the American Embassy in Caracas. This compares with 
about 800,000 bags in 19^8-^9, 780,000 bags in 191+7-^8, and 800,000 bags 
in 19hG-k"(. The annual average prewar (1935-39) output amounted to 9*4-0,000 
bags. 

The Director of the Coffee Section of the Venezuelan Ministry of Agri- 
culture states that the new crop of highland coffee will be well above last 
year's production as a result of exceptionally favorable weather prevailing 
in the important highland coffee growing states of Tachira, Merida, and 
Trujillo. On the other hand, the severe drought in the lower coffee grow- 
ing states of Miranda, Aragua, and Carabobo will result in a poor crop of 
lowland coffee. Since the highland coffee is preferred by foreign buyers 
and is generally produced for the export trade rather than for local con- 
sumption, an unusually large percentage of the 19^9-50 crop may be avail- 
able for export. In view of the fact that the highland grades consistently 
command higher prices, in the world market, the total f inancial return from 
the new coffee crop may be the highest in Venezuela's history. 

Coffee exports from Venezuela during the first 6 months of 19^9 
amounted to 213,000 bags, considerably less than the 30*+, 000 bags ex- 
ported in the corresponding period of 19^8. This reduction resulted 
mainly from the high prices obtained for coffee on the world market in 
19^8 which greatly stimulated Venezuelan exports and left very little 
carry-over to be exported this year. 

Internal consumption of . coffee in Venezuela is estimated currently 
at approximately 250,000 bags annually. A shortage of coffee for local 
use developed early in 19^-9 with a consequent rise in domestic prices of 
roasted coffee. This shortage will continue until the new harvest begins 
in October. 

ANGOLA'S 19^9 COFFEE 
CROP LARGER 

Angola's 19^9 coffee crop is estimated at 733,000 bags, compared 
with 621,000 bags in 19^3, 776,000 bags in 19^7, and a prewar (1935-39) 
average of 300,000 bags, according to the American Consulate in Luanda. 
The increase in the current year's production is attributed to abundant 
rain during the flowering season. The trees usually blossom in September 
at the beginning of the rainy season, and the coffee is harvested from 
May to July. 

Coffee is Angola's most valuable export commodity. A3 domestic 
consumption amounts to around 50,000 bags annually, the 19^9 crop should 
supply about 680,000 bags for export. Portugal, the United States, and 



September 5, 19^9 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



229 



the Netherlands are the principal markets for coffee produced in Angola. 
During the past. 3 years, the United. States lias been the destination for 
nearly a third of Angola's total coffee shipments- of approximately 
2,i+00,000 hags. - ■ /« ■ - ; 

CACAO PRODUCTION IN ■ 'A ' " " : - 
NEW HEBRIDES DECLINING ••' • • • 

At the present time, cacao production in the New Hebrides is less than 
a third as high as it was before the war, according to the American Consulate 
in Noumea. 

The cultivation of cacao was begun in the New Hebrides about 30 years 
ago. Production climbed rapidly, and exports of cacao beans reached a peak _» 
of 5.3 million pounds in 1927. Exports declined to an average of k.l mil- 
lion pounds annually in the period 1930-3^, 3.9 million in 1935-39, and 3.h 
million in 19k0-kk-> They dropped to 2.0 million pounds by 19*1-7 and to 1.2 
million pounds in 19^8. ■ 

The principal reason for the decline in cacao production is the acute 
shortage of labor. Cacao labor requirements are highly seasonal, and the 
labor has been used mainly for production of copra, which- to date has been 
a more lucrative crop than cacao beans. At the present wages being paid 
labor, it is extremely costly to keep the brush and vines cleared from the 
planted areas, and some owners are abandoning fully developed cacao planta- 
tions and turning to other crops. 

There are now about 1 million cacao trees planted on approximately 
10 thousand acres. The area available for expansion of cacao production 
is immense. Nearly 900 thousand acres in the New Hebrides are suitable 
for cultivation, and much of this land could grow cacao trees. However, 
no new areas are being planted in cacao, and many existing cacao planta- 
tions are being badly neglected. 

FATS AND OILS 



ARGENTINA MAKES SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES IN OILSEED POLICIES l/ 

Two significant developments have taken place in the Argentine 
vegetable oilseed situation. One is the Government's agreement to ex- 
port flaxseed to the United Kingdom after July 1, 1950. The other is 
the removal of subsidies on edible oils for domestic consumption. This 
is expected to reverse the upward consumption trend and increase the 
exportable quantity of edible oils by 125,000 metric tons (138,000 short 
tons) . 



l/ A more extensive statement based on a report submitted by C. A. Boonstra, 
American Embassy, Buenos Aires, may be obtained from the Office of Foreign 
Agricultural Relations. 



230 



Foreign Crops aiidJ4arkets 



Vol. 59, No. 10 



The Anglo -Argentine trade agreement., signed June 27, 1949, is of 
major significance to the oilaeed trade. The United Kingdom has already- 
purchased 40,000 metric tons (44,000 short tons) of linseed oil, which 
is the first large sale in the current year, and eventually may take a 
total of 110,000 metric tons. In an exchange of notes following the 
signing of the trade agreement, Argentina; after July 1, 1950, is to 
supply the United Kingdom a quantity of flaxseed in the proportion of 30 
percent of the total aggregate value of the United Kingdom's annual 
purchases of Argentine flaxseed and linseed oil. This commitment will 
become effective earlier if Argentina previous^ exports flaxseed to any 
destination. The British were anxious to obtain flaxseed this year but 
Argentina would not agree until a portion of the accumulated oil had 
moved. . 

United Kingdom's purchase of 1+0,000 tons of linseed oil was made at 
93 pounds sterling per metric ton, f.o.b. bulk at Buenos Aires. At the 
exchange rate of 13.53 pesos to the pound sterling the price amounts to 
1.25 pesos per kilogram (l6.9 U.S. cents per pound). . This is a sharp 
drop from the previous quotation of 1.60 pesos (21.6 cents). 

Argentina's problem of moving surplus edible oils into world markets 
during the coming year is considered solely a question of price. Markets 
are claimed for the quantity available for export provided that IAPI meets 
price competition from other sources. Provision is made in the new agree- 
ment for the United Kingdom to purchase edible oils up to a maximum value 
of 9 million pounds sterling. So far the price per unit has not been 
disclosed. 

Official estimates for 1949 oilseed crops have not been released, but 
reliable trade sources indicate a record sunflower seed output of 1.2 
million short tons. Peanut production of 132,000 tons was smaller than 
anticipated. Commercial cottonseed production is estimated at 200,000 
tons. These crops were harvested during March-May of this year. 

Planting for 1949-50 flaxseed is now in progress, but the season has 
not advanced sufficiently to provide much information on the prospective 
acreage. Last June the Minister of Agriculture asked growers to increase 
wheat seedings and to maintain their flaxseed plantings. The assumption 
is that about 3.2 million acres will be planted compared with 5 to 7 mil- 
lion acres in prewar years. 

ANGOLA EXPECTS LARGER 
OLEAGINOUS OUTPUT 

Angola's production of palm oil and oleaginous materials during the 
1949-50 season is unofficially forecast at approximately 82,700 short tons, 
according to a report from the American Embassy, Luanda, This would be a 
63 percent increase over the 1948-49 output of 50,700 tons which was only 
70 percent of the normal yield u 

Angola produces sizeable quantities of palm kernels and palm oil, 
castor beans, peanuts, cottonseed, and sesame seed. As the palm tree grows 
wild cn the coastal plain, considerable quantities of palm oil are pre- 
pared by the natives for their own use. Practically all of the palm 
kernels harvested are exported. 



September 5, 1949 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



231 



Exports of oils and oilseeds during 1948 amounted to less than 
33,000 tons compared with 40,000 in 19^7 and only about 16,000 prewar 
(see table). European countries were the principal recipients. 

Commercial stocks of the 1948 crop of oilseeds are practically ex- 
hausted. Oil and oilseeds from the 1949 production are now accumulating 
at plantations in the interior. 

Prices on shipments to Lisbon are quoted as follows: palm oil, 
6.00 angolares per kilogram ($220.00 per 3hort ton); palm kernels, 2.50 
($91.60); peanuts, 4.00 ' (§146.50) ; castor beans, 2.70 ($98.90); sesame 
seed 4 a 00 ($146.50); and cottonseed 1.10 ($40.30). 

Due to expected price decreases, the Angolan Government has reduced 
export duties from 20 percent to 10 percent on palm oil from plantations 
and 15 percent on oil of native production. Steps have also been taken 
to amend certain legislative measures of last year which imposed special 
taxes on exports of oleaginous products and to decrease excess-profits 
taxes on exports. 



ANGOLA: Exports of vegetable oils and oilseeds, 1948 
with comparisons 



-Commodity 


* Average 


1945 


1946 


: 1947 


: 1948 1/ 


: 1935-39 




'Short tons 


Short tons 


Short tons 


Short tonG 


Short tons 


Palm kernels. . . 
Castor beans . . . 
Sesame seed.... 


! 6,678 
: 3,254 
! 4,614 

! ' 560 

: 2/ 773 
; 1/ 


12,462 
8,131 
4,443 
453 
177 
55,280 


14,309 
16,716 
9,634 
936 
1,161 
1,116 


15,374 
13,647 
4,826 
1,308 
846 
4,457 


9.309 
. 9,327 
3,321 
3,294 
918 
6,246 



l/ Preliminary. 2/ 4-year average. 3/ Negligible, if any. 



American Embassy, ^uanda. 

PAKISTAN HAH VESTS 
SMALLER FLAXSEED CHOP 

Pakistan's 1948-49 flaxseed harvest i3 reported at 472,000 bushels 
from 74,000 acres compared with 512,000 bushels, from an equivalent acreage 
^n 1947-48. The production decrease of 8 percent, resulting entirely 
from decreased output in East Bengal, was due to a slightly smaller acreage, 
excessive rains in November, and drought thereafter. 



232 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



Vol. 59, No. 10 



LIVESTOCK AMD ANIMAL PRODUCTS 

HOG- SITUATION IN ARGENTINA 
APPEARS BRIGHTER l/ 

The Anglo -Argentine agreement signed in June of this year includes 
a provision for the sale of hog products and offals to the United Kingdom 
with definite quantities and prices to he determined by pending negotia- 
tions in London. The maximum quantity of pork tc he shipped during the 
year, however, is "based on 10 percent of the 300,000 long tons of beef and 
mutton established in the agreement which means that 30,000 long tons of 
these products would be acceptable to the British. 

Obviously, it is too early to determine what effect the new export 
agreement will have on farrowings. Present opinion is that actual pork 
shipments will fall short of the new goal for at least the next two years, 
principally because of the relatively low number of hogs in Argentina, 
Trade sources indicate that exports of hog products may not begin before 
October of this year. 

The Government recently authorized livestock producers to feed large 
stocks of insect -damaged corn and bran at 8 and 9 pesos ($2.38 and $2.68), 
respectively, per 100 kilos (220.46 pounds). Such stocks are reported 
to be relatively large and practically non-exportable. New corn is 
priced from 11 to Ik pesos ($3.27 to $4.17), respectively, per 100 kilos 
depending on location of grain' terminal to. feeder „ With a surplus corn 
supply on hand and an export outlook for pork to the United Kingdom, the 
hog industry of Argentina can be expected to be considerably stimulated. 

If the prices are revised upward, it is expected that, the majority 
of. hog producers will build up their brooding herds and generally step 
up the farrowing program. Considerable interest has been reflected at 
purebred sales held in connection with the Rosario livestock exposition. 
The small hog producers contribute about two -thirds of the hogs marketed. 
This group is expected to increase their herds if prices are somewhat 
higher, but the larger producers will require a higher price to induce 
them to expand their operations. The large operators' expenses and 
labor difficulties make operating costs higher than those of the smaller 
operators who utilize family labor. 

U.K. LIVESTOCK NUMBERS 
CONTINUE POSTWAR INCREASE 

Livestock numbers, except for horses, in the United Kingdom show an 
increase over a year earlier. Cattle and calf numbers were more than h 
percent larger than those of Juno a year ago and are now 16 percent above 
the 1936-40 prewar average. Although hog numbers were only slightly 
larger than the preceding year, present numbers are less than half of 
the 1936 -kO average. 



1/ Eased on a report from George L. Dietz, American Embassy, Buenos Aires. 



September 5, 19^9 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



233 



Horse numbers continue to decline and are a little over half of 
prewar. Sheep numbers, on the other hand, were about 7 percent higher 
in June of this year, but only 75 percent of prewar. Chicken numbers 
also continued to show a considerable increase over June 19^8 and pre- 
war numbers. 



UNITED KINGDOM: Livestock numbers in June 19^9, 
• with comparisons 



Classification 


, Average 
1936-40 


19^6 


19^7 


19^8 


19^9 1/ 




Thousand 


; Thousand 


Thousand 


• Thousand 


: Thousand 


Cattle 
Hogs 
Sheep 
Horse 3 
Chi ckens 


8,798 
i+,380 

26, 112 
1, 086 

69,939 


9,629 
1,955 

20,353 
83^ 

61,723 


9,567 
1,628 
16,713 

778 
6M80 


9,806 
2,151 

18,16k 
702 

79,219 


. 10,239 
2, 181 
: 19,507 
: 598 
: 88,992 



1/ Preliminary 



Compiled from official sources. 



ARGENTINE CATTLE 
PRICES INCREASE 

Argentine cattlemen, according to a recent report, have received 
the new schedule of beef prices based on the recently signed Anglo- 
Argentine agreement. These prices are retroactive on export deliveries 
to April 1 of this year. For the better quality export steers, the 
prices are calculated to be 'Jk centavos per live kilo (10 cents per 
pound), compared with centavos (7.3 cents per pound) prevailing for 
the past two years. 

The official schedule provides for a system of discounts for over- 
fat cattle. This appears to be a method by which producers are penalized 
for holding back stock pending the higher prices anticipated in the recent 
price negotiations. 

Generally, it is believed that the new prices will be sufficient 
to maintain the industry despite the producer's contentions that the 
cost of production is 96 centavos (13 cents per pound). Considerable 
interest was evident at the annual Palermo livestock exposition where 
the prices paid for prize -winning cattle were much higher for similar 
animals than last year. 



Foreign Crops and Markets Vol. 59, No. 10 



NSW ZEALAND BUTTERFAT 
PRICES UP 



New Zealand dairymen will receive 46.88 cents a pound for 
butterfat made into "butter and 50.2 cents a pound for butterfat 
used in making cheese during the 1949-50 season effective August l s 
1949. The new price is an increase of 2,48 cents per pound higher 
than last season's guaranteed price, and .16 cents above the price 
paid during the months of June and July 1949. 

The New Zealand Dairy Products Marketing Commission is paying 
the following prices for "butter and cheese in New Zealand: 

Butter- - - - 93-93J points 42.94 cents per pound 

Cheese- - - - 92-923-' points 23.6*1- cents per pound 



FRENCH DAIRY SUPPLIES 
AFFECTED BY DROUGHT 



French protests against living costs have prompted the French 
Ministry of Agriculture to announce that immediate imports, es- 
pecially of dairy products, will "be made to compensate for drought - 
reduced domestic production. 

Under existing trade agreements, some Dutch "butter and cheese 
have been available in France. However, the following list of 
imports will be made in the immediate future, in an attempt to 
supply domestic needs and reduce prices and black market activities 
which have risen as a result of the short supplies. 

9,200 tons of Dutch butter 

4,000 tons of Dutch cheese 

4,290 tons of Danish butter 

800 tons of Swi3s cheese 



Poor pastures and a probable winter forage shortage resulting 
from the continued drought this summer have caused considerable 
liquidation of cattle. Immediate rains could give temporary relief 
but short winter forage supplies will cause the selling of cattle 
later, or substantial imports of winter feeds will bo necessary. 



September 5, 1949 Foreign Crops and Markets 235 

COTTON AND OTHER FIBER' ' 

COTTON -PRICE QUOTATIONS. 
ON FOREIGN MARKETS _ ' 

The following table shows certain cotton-price quotations on foreign markets 
converted at current rates of exchange. 

COTTON: Spot prices in certain foreign markets, and the 
U.S. gulf -port average 



Market location, :Date 
kind, and quality :1949 

Alexandria : 

Ashmouni , Good : 9-1 

Ashmouni , F.G.F : n 

Kama V., Good : " 

Karnak, F.G.F • : M 

Bombay : ... 

Jar i la, Fine : 9~1 

Broach, Fine : ff 

Karachi : 

4F Punjab, S.G. , Fine :g~31 

28 9F Sind, S.G.,, Fine : » 

289F Punjab, S .G. , Fine . . . : » 

Buenos Aires . : 
Type 3 : 9-1 

Lima : 

Tanguis, Type 5 :S~31 

Pima, Type I : n 

Recife : 

Mata, Type 4. . : 9-1 

Sertao, Type 5 : " 

Sao Paulo : 
Sao Paulo, Type 5 : 9~1 

Torre on : 
Middling, 15/16" : 

Hous t on -Ga Ives ton -New : 
Orleans av. Mid. 15/16" . . . : 9-1 



Unit of 
weight 



Unit of 
currency 



Price in 

foreign 

currency 



Equivalent 
U.S. cents 
per pound 



Kantar 
99.05 lbs 



Candy 
784 lbs. 

Maund 
82.28 lbs, 



Mo trie ton 

2204.6 lbs. 

Sp. quintal 

101.4 lbs. 
»t 

Arrcba 
33.07 lbs. 



Sp. quintal 
101.4 lbs. 



Pound 



Tallari 



Rupee 



Peso 
Sol 

Cruzeiro 
11 

« 

Peso 
Cent 



5L95 : ^3.32 
50.20 : U1.S6 
(not quoted) 
(not quoted) 



620.00 
650.00 



86.00 
90.00 
91.00 

1/ 4000. 00 

U00.00 

^75.00 

205.00 
200.00 

19s. 00 



XXXXX 



Quotations of foreign markets reported by cable from U. S. Foreign Service posts 
abroad. U. S. quotations from designated spot markets. 



1/ Nominal. 



236 



Foreign-Crops, and Markets Vol. 59, No. 10 



CHINESE COTTON CONSUMPTION 
DECLINES IN 19kS-k9 

Cotton mill consumption in China has been estimated at 1,850,000' 
bales (480 pounds net) for the 1948-^9 season^ or a decline from 
2,030,000 bales in the previous season and 2,500,000 bales in the pre- 
war period. These figures do not include an estimated; 1948-49 con- 
sumption of 1,250,000 bales in home industries, such as hand spinning, 
mattresses, and padding for clothing. ' ... 

The decline in cotton mill consumption has been due principally 
to interruptions of mill operations by military activities and the 
shortages of power and raw cotton. The Coastal blockade by the 
Nationalists, disruption of river transportation by floods, and the 
limited capacity of the railroads have handicapped the moving of raw 
materials to the mills and finished goods to the interior. Financial 
difficulties have also handicapped the restoration of oormal marketing 
activities. - .. . 

■ .-.Cotton mills; in the interior have been able' to maintain operations 
at a fairly high level due to easier. access to domestic" cotton supplies 
The mjlls., however, in the Shanghai area, which has about 45 percent- of 
.Chinafs'- operable spindles, face a critical -.situation*. Due to lack of 
power and of raw cotton, Shanghai mills were forced to' cut' operations 
r from 15 "to 16 shifts early in the season, to 8. shifts in June and to 6 - 
shifts in July. Cotton consumption has been reduced from 135 /°0° to 
142,000 bales per- month to an estimated £5 ,000 bales in July. Latest 
reports indicate that still- greater curtailment in operation will be 
necessary unless China can secure additional cotton imports to supple- 
ment available supplies until the new crop starts moving in volume in 
November . ' ... . 



Stocks of cotton in the Shanghai, area on June 1, 194'9",' were reported 
at about 165,000 -bales. Strong efforts are being made to secure ad- 
ditional, old-crop cotton from the interior but considering the problems 
of transportation and other, factors, it is estimated that hardly more 
than : 100., 000 bales of the old crop oan b^e -collected from the interior 
in the 2 or 3 months . ' 

Therefore assuming cotton mill consumption of 70,000 bales in June 

and 5^,000 in July, it is apparent that .consumption must be- reduced 

even further if more imports cannot be secured from outside sources-. 

The 1949-50 cotton crop, on which harvesting is Just starting, is 
expected to be smaller than the 2,115,000 bales harvested last season. 
The spring drought in north China and recent floods in central China 
have reduced both acreage and yields in China this season. Farmers - 
have also considered food crops more important than cotton. 



September 5, 19^9 



Foreign Crops and Markets 



237 



In view of the short .I9U9-5O cotton crop, the small stocks both at 
mills and in the interior, the large demands of the home industries 
.which took an estimated 1,250,000 bales in the past season, and the 
continued difficulties in collections and transportation, supplies of 
domestic cotton for the coastal mills will fall far short of require- 
ments in 1949-50. 

Without raw cotton imports it is estimated the mills will have 
to curtail operation in the I949-5O season by 1+5 percent over last 
season. It is evident, therefore, that the Chinese Communists are in 
desperate need of additional raw. cotton imports. The possibilities 
of supplying such needs, however, now seem meager. No appreciable 
fraction of the foreign exchange necessary for such purchases is in 
sight, and the closure of ports further hinders imports or barter 
exchange. 

This year's reduction In food crops owing to floods and drought 
may make it necessary to plant more food crops next year at the expense 
of cotton. Thus, it seems probable China will not be able to increase 
its cotton acreage for at least two more seasons because of the demand 
on available acreage for food crops . 

PHILIPPINE COTTON 
CONSUMPTION DROPS 

..Philippine consumption of raw cotton for the 19^8-49 season was 
3,727 bales (500 pounds gross weight) as compared to 7,131 bales for 
the previous season, according to Douglas M. Crawford, Agricultural 
Attache, American Embassy, .Manila. 

The reduced consumption has been blamed upon inability of the 
National Textile Mill to compete with imported textiles. During the 
last k or 5 months the mill has been operating at only about one -third of 
capacity. The Philippine Government, however, has started an investi- 
gation of the management of the mill, and it is believed the accumula- 
tion of large textile stocks in the mill warehouses may be due more to 
mismanagement rather than an inability to meet prices of imported goods . 
The National Textile Mill is expected to produce yard goods in a larger 
volume during the I9I+9-5O season, especially if import restrictions on 
textiles are extended. 

The Philippine Government has recently let a contract for the 
construction of a textile plant at Narvacan, Ilocos Sur . This plant 
;wlll- be primarily for the production of cotton yarns for use in the 
home -weaving industry of the Ilocos Provinces. Apparently some of the 
surplus- spindles in the National Development Company's plant in Manila 
will be used. It. is hoped the establishment of a mill in Ilocos, the 
main cotton-growing. area of the Philippines, will encourage the ex- 
pansion of cotton production. 



238 



- Foreign Grpps and Markets 



Vol. 59, No. 10 



The Philippines scoured most of. their cotton imports from the 
United States in the past season. Imports in the 19^8-^9 season 
amounted to 2,790 bales and local domestic production hhO bales. Most 
of the local production is consumed in the homes. 

ITALIAN SILK INDUSTRY 
PROGRESS RETARDED 

Notwithstanding the general economic improvement in Italy, the 
Italian silk industry , made little progress toward recovery during the 
first half of 19^9,. according to a recent -report from the American 
Vice Consul at Milan. 

Cocoon production during the year, is expected to total about 22 
million pounds compared with about 21 million (the lowest in 50 years) 
in 1946; 59 million in 19^7; and a prewar average of 66 million pounds . 
Present cocoon production allows spinners work for only 3 months of the 
year, thus contributing to higher production costs. 

The number of spinning mills which have had to shut down has in- 
creased during the first half of 19^9. The relatively low cocoon pro- 
duction and the difference claimed between production costs and the 
market price of raw silk are given as the reasons for closing down. 
The current market price of raw silk is claimed to be approximately 18 
percent below the total cost of production, including the purchase of 
cocoons and the process of spinning. At the end of June Italian raw 
silk was offered at approximately $4 w 00 per pound. 

The Italian raw silk industry is dependent almost exclusively on 
domestic production of cocoons. About 2.2 million pounds of silk can 
be produced from the 22 million pounds of cocoons at the usual Italian 
ratio of 1 to 10. No additional production is expected because imports 
of cocoons from Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, and Soviet Russia are no 
longer possible. 

Italian consumption of raw silk is estimated at amounts varying 
from about 1 to 2 million pounds annually. -. 

Stocks of .silk were reported by the Italian National Silk Organi- 
zation (Ente Nazionale Serico) as having decreased from roughly 2.5 
million pounds at the beginning of 19^9 to about 1.8 million by the 
end of Juno. ... ^-^j.- •»>.•..• . ■ --..r .-.•<* :•_ •' 

Exports of raw silk in the first 5 months of 19^9 totaled only 
303, uOQ pounds compared with 1,920,000 pounds during the corresponding 
period of 19^8.- Prewar exports averaged more than 5 million pounds 
annually, Of the. 19^+9 exports, about 20, percent were shipped to the 
Jni ted States, 2V> percent to Egypt, 17 percent to France, 8 percent to 
Switzerland, 7 porcent to Argentina, 5 percent each to. Pakistan and 
Great Britain, k porcent each to Austria and Germany and the remaining 
2 percent to various other European, Asiatic, and African countries. 



September 5, 1949 Foreign Crops and Markets 



239 



Foreign trade in raw silk has suffered considerably from Japanese 
competition. It is reported that quotas established in trade agreements 
of Italy with other European countries will in many cases go unfulfilled 
because of the availability of cheaper raw silk from Japan, Exports to 
India have suffered particularly since a new Japanese exchange policy 
allows acceptance of pounds sterling in payment for exports from that 
country. The present situation does not seem encouraging for Italy as 
an exporter of raw silk in the future. The Government apparently is 
taking no definite measures at this time either to encourage or protect 
the industry. If conditions do not improve it is possible that the 
Italian position in the world raw silk industry will change from -an 
exporting to an importing nation. 

The following table shows revised Italian export data for exports 
of raw thrown silk by countries in 1948 compared with 1947 and 1938. 

ITALY: Exports of raw thrown silk, by countries of destination, 

.calendar years 1938, 1947, and 1948 



Country of destination 


Calendar years 


1938 




1948 




Thousand 


Thousand 


Thousand 




pounds 


pounds : 


pounds 




: 2,607 


' 49O 


563 




: 1,65^ 


0 : 


' 11 




453 


332 


283 




157 


401 ' 


35 




129 


; 146 


371 




92 


0 ' 


4. 




83 


'- 107 


247 




63 


451 • 


1,313 




43 




198 




368 


: : 92 - • i 


85 




' 5,649 


• 2,094' -■' 


3,110 



In contrast with the sharp decline in exports of raw silk, there 
was a slight increase in exports of silk manufactures in early 1949- 
Silk fabrics doubled in both quantity and value in the first 3 months 
compared with the first 3 months of 1948. The greatest increase was in 
exports to the United states, but those to Egypt, France, and Canada also 
showed some increase in value. The greatest decrease was in exports to Argentina 



240 



Foreign Crops and Markets Vol. 59, No. 10 



Exports of silk waste in the 19^9 period more than doubled in 
value, and there were increases also, in exports of mixed silk fabrics 
' and waste silk yarn. Silk thread was the only manufactured silk item 
"which showed a decrease for the period. 

The exports of Italian silk and silk- manufacturers for the year 1948, 
compared with the preceding year and a prewar year, are shown in the 
following table. 

ITALY; Exports of silk and' silk manufactures, totals and to the 
• • United States, by calendar years 1938, 19*4-7 and 1948 



Commodity 


Calendar years . 


19 JO 








Thousand 
pounds 


Thousand 
pounds 


Thousand 
pounds 


Raw thrown silk? 








Total exported . . . . . ... . 


5,649 


2,094 


3,110 


United "States . ./. . .. . ; ... 


2,607 


490" " 


2zzi 563 


Dyed thrown silk; 








Total exported . -. ... 


• hi 


5 


9 


Silk waste; 


i. - - • 


0 • • - ' 


0 








TTni+pd Rtnt^H-' 






0 


Waste silk yarns; 


: • 3/ 








! 904 : • ■ - 


- • ■ -230 ' • • 


200 


Bourrette yarns : 










: 108; 


! 150 


: 128 


Sewing thread of silk 








and siik waste : 










\ 26 ■ 


: 104 


: 31 


Silk textiles : 








Total exported......... 


• • 460 .' ' • • 


!.:. .;. . Mi ' ' ' 


\ ... - • -298 




: 55 *1 


: 38 


: 107 


Silk mixture textiles: 










: - ; 206 . ... 


1 83. 


! 43 


Other silk textiles and 








manufactures: 










• "330- • .-. 


452 


267 




.54 


15 ■' 


.84